Tomorrow is the big day, and we here at Underdog cannot wait. The best time of the year is here!
Quick note, we apologize for not posting draft (or Eagles) updates lately, Underdog has been busy lately with a little underdog of our own.
Just about all of our free time has gone into training Peaches, and now working on online classes. But the timing was just right this week, and it’s draft season, so without further ado, here’s our final, no-trade mock.
1. Arizona Cardinals: QB Kyler Murray
Murray to the Cards has seemed like a forgone conclusion for many analysts out there for a month or so now. It also aligns with our article on how each pick in the draft is most usually selected in terms of position. 71% of the time, the first overall pick is a QB.
Kingsbury will have FUN with Kyler Murray.
2. San Francisco 49ers: EDGE Nick Bosa
Nick Bosa is the best pass-rusher in the draft. These days, edge-rushers are seen as the second-most important position on the field. Maybe Quinnen Williams is the best player in the draft, maybe Bosa is, but the 49ers take the guy whose job it is to get to the QB from the edge.
3. New York Jets: DT Quinnen Williams
Arguably the best player in the draft. Williams is an absolute monster, and reminds me of Fletcher Cox. For the Jets it’s a question of Williams or Allen, and while NY could use an edge-rusher, Williams is too good to pass up.
4. Oakland Raiders: EDGE Josh Allen
For the Raiders, it’s a matter of who is left over after the 49ers and Jets take their pick of the defensive linemen. Allen replaces Khalil Mack (but not really), and adds a young playmaker on defense.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LB Devin White
Devin White may be the best linebacker prospect I can remember in a long time. The Bucs could fill a lot of holes in their roster, and there are better value positions with great talent left on the board, but here they grab the QB of the defense for years to come.
6. New York Giants: QB Dwayne Haskins
The Giants need to take a QB. Haskins is better than Drew Lock, but Haskins might not be pick-6 material. This is a tough situation for the Giants, when you factor in the whole of their QB situation, but they have to reach for a QB here. Haskins won’t be available at 17, and nobody thinks Jarrett Stidham is as good as I do (he’s Underdog’s second-best QB in the draft during initial QB evaluations), so they have to take Haskins.
And let me elaborate, Haskins at 6 isn’t a major reach. His best value is likely at, say, pick 9. This one is just hard to swallow when guys like Montez Sweat and Ed Oliver are still available.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: OT Jawaan Taylor
35% of the time, the seventh pick is a wide receiver. A month or so back, I had the Jags taking N’Keal Harry here, as he was at the time the best WR prospect in the draft. The Jags need to give Nick Foles some help, either on the O-Line or at receiver, and it’s too early to take D.K. Metcalf or Marquise Brown, so they take one of the draft’s biggest risers in Taylor.
8. Detroit Lions: EDGE Montez Sweat
The Lions have had Rashan Gary mocked to them for weeks now, and I used to be on board there. Gary’s stock, however, has been sliding after a disappointing combine to go along with a lack of production in college. Gary represents potential, while Sweat represents a prototype. Montez Sweat’s college production and combine masterpiece vault him ahead of Rashan Gary, and the Lions will be happy to have Sweat here.
9. Buffalo Bills: OT Andre Dillard
Andre Dillard is a very athletic tackle with the potential to be a Lane Johnson type. Josh Allen will appreciate this athleticism very much. This is also a result of Jonah Williams’ stock falling just enough, and Dillard’s stock rocketing after the combine.
10. Denver Broncos: QB Drew Lock
John Elway taking a big white QB? I’m shocked!
But in reality, Lock is the best value QB here at 10. My boy Stidham is still on the board (and will be for a long time), and there isn’t a great corner to be drafted here, as Greedy Williams is looking like more and more of a second-round pick.
Lock is the best QB the Broncos would have brought in since Manning. That’s not saying much, though.
11. Cincinnati Bengals: LB Devin Bush
Devin Bush is a beast, and fills a need for the Bengals here. Bush is a half-step behind Devin White, but the Bengals probably won’t notice a difference. I can’t believe I have two linebackers going in the first 11 picks.
12. Green Bay Packers: TE T.J. Hockenson
Hockenson is a do-it-all tight end. Pairing him with Aaron Rodgers is a match made in heaven. I still like Noah Fant a little better, but the Packers go with Hockenson, which will be a much needed addition of youthful talent to their offense.
13. Miami Dolphins: DT Ed Oliver
Best player available that is somehow still available. If the Dolphins draft a QB here with Oliver still on the board, then fire everyone. If Ed Oliver is on the board here and he is not selected, fire everyone.
The Dolphins are in tank mode, but Oliver is a piece that cannot be passed up.
14. Atlanta Falcons: EDGE Rashan Gary
The Falcons will appreciate Gary’s versatility on the D-line, and can see him as a guy with potential at 14 much better than the Lions could at 8.
15. Washington Redskins: QB Daniel Jones
Washington forces a pick, and takes Jones. I don’t think very highly of Washington’s front office, and neither should anyone else. This is the kind of dumb move they would make.
I have heard rumblings that they are trying to trade into the top 10 (maybe even the top 5) to get a QB. I think Lock is a real possibility for that trade up, but getting Haskins may be too difficult. If they stay put, they’re stuck with one of my lowest-graded QBs in the draft.
Oh, and Stidham could be drafted in the second round.
16. Carolina Panthers: OL Jonah Williams
The Panthers are looking to add to their O-line, and Williams has talent and versatility. This pick reminds me of when the Titans took Jack Conklin, and just plugged-and-played him. I think the Panthers could have the same level of success with Williams.
17. New York Giants: DT Clelin Ferrell
The Giants get a great pass-rushing prospect at 17 in Ferrell. Ferrell would be a top 10 pick in any other draft, but there’s just so much defensive talent this year (and QB-needy teams) that he slides to NY. This is the best pick the Giants can make, and likely have made in years. And that very much includes picking Saquon at 2 last year.
18. Minnesota Vikings: C Garrett Bradbury
If the Vikings find themselves at this point in the draft with Williams, Dillard, and Taylor gone, then it’s either Bradbury, Cody Ford, Dalton Risner, or trading back. I think Risner is more of an early-second rounder, and Bradbury appeals more to the Vikings than Ford.
19. Tennessee Titans: DT Jeffery Simmons
Simmons probably can’t play this upcoming season due to a torn ACL, but at 19 he is great value. Simmons and Harold Landry would make for a dangerous, young pair for years to come.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: WR D.K. Metcalf
I was really torn here. I still don’t see there being a corner worth picking at 20, so it was between Metcalf and Marquise Brown. I think that the Steelers will see the value that Marquise Brown would bring to the team, but honestly, I think they are going to stay away from “Hollywood” Brown because he is Antonio Brown’s cousin. The Steelers need to get a hold of their locker room, and stop adding drama to the team.
I don’t think Marquise Brown would try to do that, for the record, but I think it would whip up some personalities around the league. Metcalf had an incredible combine and has the potential to be a tremendous number 1 receiver in the league.
21. Seattle Seahawks: DT Christian Wilkins
Having traded Frank Clark, the Seahawks should look to add to their D-line. Wilkins has excellent character, and has experience playing on the edge as well. I think he fits with what the Seahawks want to do in their quasi-rebuild, and adds a lot of talent to their defense.
22. Baltimore Ravens: WR Marquise Brown
I really like adding speed to speed. Imagine Lamar Jackson having a receiver as quick as Brown, and the way in which their talents could be utilized together.
23. Houston Texans: OL Dalton Risner
The Texans want a tackle, and Risner has more tackle experience than Cody Ford. They can’t not draft an offensive lineman in the first round. It’d be irresponsible to Deshaun Watson.
24. Oakland Raiders: RB Josh Jacobs
Marshawn Lynch is gone, and the Raiders would love to have an every-down back like Jacobs. This is also a good value pick.
25. Philadelphia Eagles: OL Cody Ford
With the best defensive linemen off the board, the Eagles work on their offensive trenches with Cody Ford, who can help patch up the depth of the o-line, while letting Brandon Brooks slowly recover for the start of the season. He could also replace Jason Kelce, should he retire. Dexter Lawrence was also in strong consideration here.
26. Indianapolis Colts: S Jonathan Abram
Abram would add another strong, young piece to an underrated defense, and just make this Colts team even better. I told my coworker from Indiana (who never watches football) that I would bet hard money the Colts are a top-6 team in the league next season. She said she didn’t care.
27. Oakland Raiders: DT Dexter Lawrence
Lawrence and Josh Allen could put the Raiders d-line over the top. It’s been debated whether or not Lawrence is a first-round talent, but he is in this scenario.
28. Los Angeles Chargers: CB Byron Murphy
Finally a corner! The Chargers just miss out on a solid defensive lineman, and decide that bolstering the safety is a higher priority than reaching for Jerry Tillery.
29. Seattle Seahawks: CB Deandre Baker
I love Baker’s game. He practically played in the box at times in Georgia! He is a physical corner who makes tackles and played near-blanket coverage in college. Seattle would love him.
30. Green Bay Packers: OL Chris Lindstrom
The Packers attempt to rebuild their relationship with Aaron Rodgers by adding a versatile, athletic lineman. Lindstrom is a cusp-second rounder, but also the best o-lineman available.
31. Los Angeles Rams: DT Jerry Tillery
Jerry Tillery is one of my favorite prospects in the draft, and I have him going to one of my least favorite teams in the league. His athleticism, if developed right, could create nightmares for offensive linemen trying to block him, Aaron Donald, and Dante Fowler all at once.
32. New England Patriots: TE Noah Fant
Ugh, the rich get richer. Out goes Gronk, in comes Fant, a quicker receiving tight end that can be used like Zach Ertz or Evan Engram in the passing game. Fant is a very talented and athletic prospect that could replace Gronk seamlessly.